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Logic trumps odds
For the fifth consecutive week, we visit a misplayed deal from the 2018 U.S. Team Trials. Watching online can frustrate me, as I expect more from the expert players. South held:
♠ A K Q ♥Q 7 5 ♦A K Q J 5 ♣J 9
Vulnerable against not, he opened 2♣ and after partner’s 2♦ waiting, rebid 2NT to show 22–24 balanced. Partner used Stayman and then jumped to 5NT to offer a choice of slams. South suggested diamonds, but North was having none of that and corrected to 6NT. A low diamond was led:
Dummy’s ♦;9 held. What are the odds?
You don’t need to know them! You just need good logic. Can you figure out the best line of play? (Note: There is no 100% line.)
Start by counting top tricks. You have three spades, five diamonds and one club. One big conclusion is that you should disregard the club suit. Even if you were to win a club finesse, that would get you to only 10 tricks. You could later establish a sure heart trick, but would still need to find the ♥J for a 12th trick.
Because you have to find the ♥J regardless, there is no reason to take an initial club finesse. Contrast the club finesse plan to working on hearts (the right play). If you can find the ♥J (which you always need) and take three heart tricks, you won’t need a club finesse. You’d have the nine top tricks mentioned above and three heart tricks. So, it is only a question of how to play hearts.
You can finesse against either opponent for the ♥J, but you should choose to finesse against West (LHO). Why? Because if he has the ♥J – a 50% chance – you claim 12 tricks. If you play East for it and he has it, you are not home free. You still need a reasonable heart break or club finesse. Picture, for example, East with ♥J x x x or ♥A J x x. You’d lead the ♥10 for a finesse, but later, the ♥Q and another heart would reveal that the suit isn’t running.
In dummy at trick 2, lead a low heart (East could have a singleton jack). No matter who has the ace, take the 50–50 finesse against West’s ♥J. Nothing is better. Certainly stay away from the clubs! This was the Real Deal:
Declarer did actually work on hearts, but he played them incorrectly – running the ♥10 from dummy – for down one. The other table played in game, so this cost 26 IMPs, losing 13 instead of winning the same number.