| North | ||
| ♠ J 9 | ||
| ♥ K 7 6 2 | ||
| ♦ K J 10 4 | ||
| ♣ K 9 6 | ||
| South | ||
| ♠ A K | ||
| ♥ A 5 3 | ||
| ♦ A Q 9 5 | ||
| ♣ 8 7 5 4 |
After you open 1NT, partner responds 2♣ and you wind up in 3NT. West leads the ♠4. East plays the ♠6, standard count. Plan the play.
You have eight top tricks with two chances for a ninth: leading up to the ♣K (50%) or playing for 3-3 hearts (36%). Unfortunately, given the fragility of the spade position (you can only let them in one more time before their spades are established) you don’t have time to try both. Which will it be?
When one line gives you a 50% chance and the other 36%, guess which one you should take. After cashing four diamonds, lead up to the ♣K.
Tip: When you don’t have ‘time’ to give yourself two chances in the play, take the one that offers the best odds.
Notice that East’s count card at trick one from the ♠7652 was second highest from four small, the highest card tends to show a doubleton—assuming a doubleton is possible.
| ♠ J 9 | ||
| ♥ K 7 6 2 | ||
| ♦ K J 10 4 | ||
| ♣ K 9 6 | ||
| ♠ Q 10 8 4 3 | ♠ 7 6 5 2 | |
| ♥ 10 8 | ♥ Q J 9 4 | |
| ♦ 7 6 3 | ♦ 8 2 | |
| ♣ A J 2 | ♣ Q 10 3 | |
| ♠ A K | ||
| ♥ A 5 3 | ||
| ♦ A Q 9 5 | ||
| ♣ 8 7 5 4 |